Approximating the Nonhomogeneous Lognormal Diffusion Process via Polynomial Exogenous Factors

In this article we propose a methodology for building a lognormal diffusion process with polynomial exogenous factors in order to fit data that present an exponential trend and show deviations with respect to an exponential curve in the observed time interval. We show that such a process approaches a nonhomogeneous lognormal diffusion and proves that it is specially useful in the case when external information (exogenous factors) about the process is not available even though the existence of these influences is clear. An application to the global man-made emissions of methane is provided.